Macro Scenario Payoff Table Explained
Understand why each macro scenario has an asset-specific payoff and how the contribution column shapes Macro Expected Value.
What the scenario payoff table shows
The scenario payoff table is the bridge between the macro model and the selected asset. The scenario labels describe the macro feature mix. The payoff column describes how that specific asset historically behaved over the next 12 months after similar model-labeled macro states.
This is why the payoff table can sometimes surprise users. A defensive scenario name does not automatically imply a negative payoff. A supportive scenario name does not automatically imply a positive payoff. The payoff is asset-specific and history-based.
How to read the columns
The probability column shows how much weight the model assigns to each macro scenario. The scenario payoff column shows the asset-specific historical 12-month payoff associated with that path. The contribution column shows how much that path adds to or subtracts from the final Macro Expected Value.
If the contribution column is concentrated in one row, users should not overread the headline. The model may be saying that one historical macro state has a large influence on the final number.
Why bearish-looking scenarios can have positive payoffs
A negative macro state can still have a positive asset payoff if the asset historically recovered after similar periods. For example, high-volatility or high-beta assets can sometimes experience large rebound windows after pressure-heavy macro backdrops. The model does not call that outcome certain; it simply reports the historical payoff profile.
That is why users should compare the Macro Model with the risk and trend tools. A positive scenario payoff may still come with high drawdown risk, weak trend quality, or noisy timing structure.
Quality checks before using the table
Users should check whether the final Macro EV is broad-based or concentrated, whether the scenario payoff values are unusually large, whether the confidence read is mixed, and whether the other models confirm or contradict the macro view. This keeps the table educational and avoids turning it into an isolated signal.
FAQ
Is the scenario payoff a model guarantee?
No. It is an asset-specific historical payoff estimate for similar model-labeled macro states.
Why does contribution matter?
Contribution shows how much each scenario affects Macro EV. It helps users see whether the headline is broad-based or concentrated.
Should high scenario payoffs be trusted blindly?
No. High payoffs should be read with caution, especially for volatile assets or rebound-heavy historical windows.