What it does

• 12-month outlook: Generate forward-looking market forecasts for a full year ahead
• Market regime classification: Classify markets into five regimes: Strong bullish, Mild bullish, Neutral/Weak, Mild bearish, Strong bearish
• Macro factor analysis: Incorporate economic indicators like policy rates, inflation, yield curves, consumer sentiment, and credit spreads
• Technical indicators: Combine technical analysis (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, VIX, ATR) with macro fundamentals
• Machine learning predictions: Use RandomForest classification to identify patterns across multiple market regimes
• Multi-asset support: Analyze stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and forex pairs with the same methodology

How to use

1. Enter ticker

   Type the symbol for any stock (e.g., AAPL), ETF (e.g., SPY), crypto (e.g., BTC-USD), or forex pair (e.g., EURUSD=X). The autocomplete will help you find the right symbol.

2. Select features (optional)

   Choose which economic and technical indicators to include in the analysis. The model uses macro factors (policy rates, inflation, yield curves) and technical indicators (RSI, MACD, VIX) by default.

3. Run analysis

   Click “Analyze” to generate the 12-month outlook. The macro model processes historical data, economic indicators, and technical patterns to classify the market regime.

4. Review outlook

   Examine the predicted market regime (Strong bullish, Mild bullish, Neutral, Mild bearish, or Strong bearish) and the confidence levels for each classification.

5. Compare assets / export

   Run multiple analyses to compare different investments or adjust feature selections. Plus users can export results and reports for further analysis.

How the macro model works

The Macro Model (MCTM – Multi-Class Timing Model) combines economic indicators, technical analysis, and machine learning to generate 12-month market outlooks. Unlike short-term trading signals, this model focuses on long-term market regime classification to help you understand the broader market environment.

Economic Indicators

The model incorporates key macro factors that drive long-term market trends:

• Policy Rate: Central bank interest rates that influence borrowing costs and economic activity
• Inflation Rate: Consumer price inflation that affects purchasing power and monetary policy
• Yield Curve: The relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates, often a predictor of economic conditions
• Consumer Sentiment: Measures of consumer confidence that reflect economic outlook
• Credit Spread: The difference between corporate and government bond yields, indicating credit risk perception

Technical Indicators

The model also uses technical analysis to capture market momentum and volatility patterns:

• RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands: Momentum and trend indicators
• VIX: Market volatility index
• ATR: Average True Range for volatility measurement
• Additional indicators: ADX, OBV, Williams %R, MFI, Ichimoku Cloud, CCI, ROC, PSAR

Market Regime Classification

The model classifies markets into five regimes based on expected 12-month forward returns:

• Strong bullish: Very positive outlook with high expected returns
• Mild bullish: Positive outlook with moderate expected returns
• Neutral/Weak: Uncertain or sideways market conditions
• Mild bearish: Negative outlook with moderate expected declines
• Strong bearish: Very negative outlook with high expected declines

The classification uses a RandomForest machine learning model trained on historical data to identify patterns across these regimes, helping you understand the likely market environment over the next 12 months.

Specific use cases

The Macro Model is built for specific questions: a given ticker, a given set of macro and technical inputs, and a 12-month regime outlook. Below are concrete ways to use it for the kinds of queries that lead to our tool.

12-month outlook for stocks (S&P 500, single names)

If you search for things like 12 month stock outlook, S&P 500 forecast next year, or AAPL 12 month outlook, you can get a direct answer by running the Macro Model. Enter the symbol (e.g. SPY for the S&P 500, AAPL for Apple) and the model combines Fed policy, inflation, yield curve, consumer sentiment, credit spreads, and technicals (RSI, MACD, VIX, etc.) to classify the 12-month regime: Strong bullish, Mild bullish, Neutral/Weak, Mild bearish, or Strong bearish. You get a single, actionable regime view instead of generic commentary.

Run the Macro Model with SPY, QQQ, or any stock ticker to see the current 12-month regime classification and confidence levels.

12-month outlook for ETFs (sector, broad market)

For queries like sector ETF 12 month outlook or broad market ETF forecast, the same tool applies. Enter sector ETFs (e.g. XLK, XLF, XLE) or broad market ETFs (e.g. SPY, IVV) and use the same macro + technical + ML pipeline. The model does not treat ETFs differently from stocks—it uses the same economic indicators and the same five regimes, so you can compare sectors or broad market in one place.

Try the Macro Model with your chosen ETF symbol to get a 12-month regime outlook and compare multiple symbols if needed.

12-month outlook for crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum)

Searches such as Bitcoin 12 month outlook, BTC macro forecast, or Ethereum long term outlook are exactly what the Macro Model supports. Use symbols like BTC-USD or ETH-USD. The model uses the same macro factors (policy rate, inflation, yield curve, consumer sentiment, credit spread) and technical indicators; the only difference is the underlying price series. You get a 12-month regime classification (Strong bullish through Strong bearish) so you can align crypto exposure with your view on macro and momentum.

Run the Macro Model with BTC-USD or ETH-USD to see the current 12-month regime and confidence for that asset.

Yield curve and Fed rate in your 12-month outlook

If you care about yield curve recession signal, Fed rate and stock market outlook, or inflation and 12 month market forecast, the Macro Model bakes these in. You can turn on or off: Policy Rate (e.g. Fed funds), Inflation Rate, Yield Curve (e.g. 10Y–3M), Consumer Sentiment, and Credit Spread. The model uses these as features in the RandomForest classifier, so your 12-month regime output reflects how those macro inputs have historically lined up with each regime. Re-run after Fed meetings or key inflation prints to see how the outlook changes.

Use the Macro Model and check the economic indicator options to include or exclude yield curve, policy rate, and inflation in your outlook.

Comparing multiple assets (e.g. SPY vs BTC)

For questions like compare SPY vs Bitcoin outlook or stock vs crypto 12 month forecast, run the Macro Model once for each symbol (e.g. SPY, then BTC-USD). The methodology is identical: same macro data, same technical indicators, same five regimes. You get comparable regime labels and confidence so you can see whether equities and crypto are in the same regime or diverging—useful for allocation or hedging decisions.

Run the Macro Model for each asset you want to compare and use the regime output side by side.

Ready to generate 12-month market outlooks? Try our Macro Model to classify market regimes using macro factors, economic indicators, and machine learning. Analyze stocks, ETFs, crypto, and forex with professional-grade long-term forecasting.

Try free (10 runs/month). Already have an account? Log in • View pricing

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