Risk Simulation
Run a Monte Carlo risk analysis to see probability distributions, expected value, and risk metrics for forward-looking projections.
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Get detailed risk analysis
TSL's Risk Simulation provides detailed Monte Carlo analysis for educational purposes. With our risk metrics, you can explore forward-looking projections and learn professional-grade risk assessment techniques.
Upgrade to startDetailed
Get in-depth analysis of risk metrics and probability distributions
Fast
Receive results in a few minutes, with an option to get an email notification when ready.
Universal
Analyze stocks, ETFs, crypto, and forex across global markets
Accurate
Feel confident with professional-grade algorithms and real market data
Who can use our Risk Simulation?
Risk Managers
Assess downside risk and probability of loss with Monte Carlo simulations and VaR metrics
Portfolio Analysts
Evaluate forward-looking risk metrics and expected value for better position sizing
Quantitative Analysts
Study probability distributions and confidence intervals for forward-looking risk assessment
Financial Analysts
Enhance research reports with Monte Carlo risk analysis and professional-grade risk metrics
Students & Educators
Learn professional risk assessment concepts and practice Monte Carlo analysis in a risk-free educational environment
Crypto Traders
Navigate volatile cryptocurrency markets with data-driven risk analysis across all major coins
What your analysis includes
Each Risk Simulation analysis provides forward-looking metrics calculated from thousands of Monte Carlo price paths. You'll see probability-based outputs like win probability, expected return, and the Risk-Reward Factor, along with drawdown metrics that show how much prices might fall from their highest point.
These metrics help you understand both upside potential and downside scenarios, giving you a comprehensive view of forward-looking risk and return expectations.
Understanding risk metrics
Beyond probability and return metrics, your analysis includes downside risk measures. Value at Risk (VaR) shows the worst-case loss at a 95% confidence level, while Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) captures the average loss in the worst 5% of scenarios.
The Risk-Reward Factor combines these metrics to quantify upside potential relative to downside risk. Together with drawdown analysis, these metrics help you assess potential trade-offs between return expectations and risk exposure.
Simple vs Deep analysis
Simple analysis uses 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations with geometric Brownian motion for quick results. Deep analysis uses GARCH modeling to account for volatility clustering and machine learning for enhanced predictions, providing more sophisticated risk modeling.
Both analysis types provide the same core metrics (VaR, CVaR, drawdowns, RRF), but Deep analysis takes longer to compute and offers more advanced volatility modeling.
Analyze markets across asset classes
Run risk analysis across stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and forex pairs with a single tool. Our Risk Simulation provides consistent Monte Carlo methodology across 10,000+ instruments worldwide.
Get notified when results are ready
Risk Simulation analysis takes a few minutes to complete. Choose to receive an email notification when your analysis is finished, so you can continue working while we process your results.
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Visualizing probability distributions
Your analysis includes two visualizations: a percentile heatmap showing how different price paths evolve over time, and a confidence intervals chart displaying uncertainty ranges around expected outcomes.
These charts help you see beyond the numbers—understanding how probability distributions shift across different time horizons and how uncertainty expands or contracts as you look further into the future.
Explore our other analysis tools
TSL offers multiple analysis tools to help you understand different aspects of market behavior and risk.
Trend Persistence
Measure trend strength and identify potential reversals using persistence analysis across different market regimes.
Learn moreTiming Model
Classify market regimes and timing signals using multi-class classification across different asset classes.
Learn moreMacro Model
Generate 12-month outlooks using macro factors, economic indicators, and machine learning models.
Learn moreTrend Detection
Identify trend direction and strength using trend detection analysis for stocks, ETFs, crypto, and forex.
Learn moreTSL Risk Simulation FAQs
What symbols can I enter?
▼What is the Risk-Reward Factor (RRF)?
▼What is Risk Simulation?
▼What is the difference between Simple and Deep analysis?
▼Is TSL's Risk Simulation free?
▼What asset types can I analyze?
▼How many simulations does the analysis use?
▼Is this tool for educational purposes only?
▼Results are for informational research and are not investment advice. See Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
