Multi Class Timing Model (MCTM)

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Multi-Class Timing Model (MCTM) | Machine Learning Market Strategy
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Multi-Class Timing Model (MCTM)

Advanced machine learning model with 4-class probability distribution for 5-day forward market predictions

Your 1:30 minute MCTM strategy explanation video will be embedded here

Machine Learning Process Flow

MCTM follows a systematic 4-step process to generate reliable market predictions:

1

Market Classification

MCTM analyzes your selected technical indicators (minimum 3, up to 19+ available) and classifies the current market state into one of four distinct categories based on pattern recognition and historical data.

2

Confidence Assessment

The model calculates its certainty level about this classification by measuring indicator consensus and data quality across multiple timeframes.

3

Pattern Recognition

Historical analysis reveals which market outcomes typically follow each classification, providing statistical probabilities for different scenarios.

4

Final Prediction

Combines classification + confidence + historical patterns to generate the most probable 5-day forward market outlook with reliability metrics.

Net Score Interpretation

The final output is a Net Score—a normalized directional signal ranging from -1 (strong bearish) to +1 (strong bullish). It summarizes the model’s probability-weighted directional conviction. Higher positive values indicate stronger bullish signals; higher negative values indicate stronger bearish signals. Values near zero indicate a neutral or uncertain outlook.

≥ +0.66 Very Strong Bullish
▼
Very Strong Bullish Signal: Exceptional positive momentum with high confidence. The model predicts significant upward movement with your selected indicators aligning positively. These conditions often represent the strongest trading opportunities.
+0.33 to +0.65 Strong Bullish
▼
Strong Positive Signal: Clear bullish momentum with good confidence levels. Your selected indicators suggest upward price movement, making this a favorable environment for long positions.
+0.17 to +0.32 Moderate Bullish
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Weak Positive Signal: Mild bullish bias with limited conviction. Some positive indicators present but mixed signals require careful analysis and risk management.
-0.16 to +0.16 Neutral Zone
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Neutral Signal: No clear directional bias. Markets may be consolidating or experiencing balanced bullish and bearish forces. Sideways movement or range-bound conditions likely.
-0.32 to -0.17 Moderate Bearish
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Weak Negative Signal: Mild bearish bias with some negative indicators present. Caution warranted but signals lack strong conviction for aggressive positioning.
-0.65 to -0.33 Strong Bearish
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Strong Negative Signal: Clear bearish momentum with your selected indicators aligned negatively. High probability of downward price movement, favoring defensive positioning or short strategies.
≤ -0.66 Very Strong Bearish
▼
Very Strong Bearish Signal: Extreme negative momentum with high confidence. Your selected indicators suggest significant downward pressure. These conditions often represent the strongest warning signals.

Multi-Indicator Analysis

MCTM combines your selected indicators from multiple categories for customizable market analysis:

Core Indicators (Always Enabled)

10-Day Moving Average
Average True Range
MACD

Technical Indicators (Optional)

RSI (Relative Strength)
Bollinger Bands
VIX (Volatility Index)
Stochastic RSI
ADX (Trend Strength)
OBV (On-Balance Volume)
Williams %R
Ichimoku Cloud
CCI (Commodity Channel)
ROC (Rate of Change)
PSAR (Parabolic SAR)

Economic Indicators (Optional)

Federal Funds Rate
Inflation Rate (CPI)
Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
Consumer Sentiment
Credit Spread

Why Choose Multi-Class Timing Model?

  • Machine Learning Powered: Uses Random Forest with probability calibration and SMOTE balancing for optimal predictions
  • Walk-Forward Validation: Rigorously tested using time-series cross-validation to prevent overfitting
  • Multi-Asset Support: Works with stocks, ETFs, crypto, and forex with adaptive feature selection
  • Risk Management: Provides confidence scores, stop-loss recommendations, and volatility warnings
  • Economic Integration: Incorporates macroeconomic data for comprehensive market context
  • Real-Time Analysis: Continuous model updates with current market and economic conditions

Ready to Try Multi-Class Timing Model?

Experience this advanced machine learning analysis in our educational trading app

Download App & Try MCTM
Educational purposes only
All strategies are for learning and simulation. No financial advice provided. Market data refreshes on app reload. Past performance does not guarantee future results.